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AXIOS (Neil Irwin) - What would a rate hike signal about the new Fed chief's MO? Mon Jul 27 16:20:58 2026

The Federal Reserve typically telegraphs its interest rate moves in advance, then follows through. This week will provide the clearest evidence yet on whether chairman Kevin Warsh is ending the era of the no-surprises Fed. The big picture: Markets are now putting meaningful odds on the Fed delivering an interest rate hike at the conclusion of its two-day meeting this week. - If the Federal Open Market Committee were to do so, it would suggest a new era in which the central bank is less predictable — accepting more volatility and surprise as the price to be paid for greater policy nimbleness. State of play: In the final public communications before the Fed entered its pre-meeting blackout period, signs were pointing to the FOMC leaving…

The Federal Reserve typically telegraphs its interest rate moves in advance, then follows through. This week will provide the clearest evidence yet on whether chairman Kevin Warsh is ending the era of the no-surprises Fed. The big picture: Markets are now putting meaningful odds on the Fed delivering an interest rate hike at the conclusion of its two-day meeting this week. - If the Federal Open Market Committee were to do so, it would suggest a new era in which the central bank is less predictable — accepting more volatility and surprise as the price to be paid for greater policy nimbleness. State of play: In the final public communications before the Fed entered its pre-meeting blackout period, signs were pointing to the FOMC leaving…Open

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AXIOS (Courtenay Brown) - Battles to shrink the Federal Reserve's balance sheet begin Wed May 20 16:14:48 2026

Data: Federal Reserve; Chart: Neil Irwin/Axios Incoming Federal Reserve chief Kevin Warsh's ambition to shrink the central bank's multitrillion-dollar bond portfolio may quickly run into hard limits. Why it matters: For nearly two decades, the Fed's ability to flood markets with liquidity has been among its most powerful crisis-fighting weapons — and, in Warsh's view, too often a go-to tool for monetary stimulus outside of crises. - Now, the hot discussion among Fed officials and commentators is about how to responsibly shrink the Fed's asset portfolio — and whether that's even a worthwhile goal. The big picture: The Fed's assets ballooned from about $800 billion before the 2008 financial crisis to nearly $9 trillion at its 2022 peak…

Data: Federal Reserve; Chart: Neil Irwin/Axios Incoming Federal Reserve chief Kevin Warsh's ambition to shrink the central bank's multitrillion-dollar bond portfolio may quickly run into hard limits. Why it matters: For nearly two decades, the Fed's ability to flood markets with liquidity has been among its most powerful crisis-fighting weapons — and, in Warsh's view, too often a go-to tool for monetary stimulus outside of crises. - Now, the hot discussion among Fed officials and commentators is about how to responsibly shrink the Fed's asset portfolio — and whether that's even a worthwhile goal. The big picture: The Fed's assets ballooned from about $800 billion before the 2008 financial crisis to nearly $9 trillion at its 2022 peak…Open

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