AXIOS (Barak Ravid) - 3 years later, Netanyahu faces reckoning over Oct. 7 in Israeli election
Israel is marking the third anniversary of the Oct. 7 terror attacks three weeks before an election where Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's personal culpability for the country's worst-ever security failure will be a central issue. Why it matters: Netanyahu has never looked more politically vulnerable than in the weeks after Oct. 7, but he has defied expectations by keeping his government afloat — presiding over simultaneous wars and an atmosphere of perpetual emergency. Though the polls are tight, they leave a clear path for the ultimate political survivor to hang on yet again. - But Oct. 7 still looms over the country and his candidacy. The opposition lambasts him for refusing to take responsibility or allow an independent inquiry…
Why is the timing of the Israeli election significant in relation to United States politics?
The Israeli election takes place one week before the U.S. midterm elections. If the Democratic Party gains control of one or both houses of Congress, it could lead to significant debates regarding arms sales to Israel and the future of the $3.8 billion in annual military assistance provided to the country. The nature of this debate may depend on whether Netanyahu remains in power.
Q&A ID b3b6b529-95ad-465a-bd81-2d86a472bfed
What is the reported stance of former U.S. President Donald Trump regarding Benjamin Netanyahu and the October 7 attacks?
While Trump has not officially endorsed Netanyahu, he has privately blamed Netanyahu for the October 7 failures and expressed concerns that Netanyahu may be damaging Israel's international reputation. However, Trump has also expressed skepticism regarding the reports that UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed warned Netanyahu. Despite these criticisms, Trump has remained close to Netanyahu during the war in Iran and may still provide an endorsement.
Q&A ID 31fc4cff-5620-4538-90a8-a49b3b86f34e
How does the polling data regarding the Israeli election project the possible outcomes for Benjamin Netanyahu's government?
Most polls show a divided political landscape: Netanyahu's Likud party is projected to have 20-22 seats (down from 32), with his right-wing coalition totaling 50-54 seats. The opposition is unlikely to reach a majority without Arab-Israeli parties, who are projected to win 12-14 seats. However, Netanyahu's mouthpiece, Channel 14, projects his coalition winning a decisive 63-seat majority. A potential outcome of the polls is a hung parliament, which could result in Netanyahu remaining as a caretaker prime minister until a new election is held.
Q&A ID 71a22b3c-7fc3-477e-ae70-105abb256a46
Who is Benjamin Netanyahu's chief opponent in the upcoming election, and what is his primary motivation?
Netanyahu's chief opponent is Gadi Eisenkot, the former Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff. Eisenkot lost his son and two nephews during the war in Gaza. Sources close to Eisenkot indicate that his main mission is to replace Netanyahu, whom he holds responsible for allowing the October 7 attacks to occur.
Q&A ID 92296053-1b27-431d-840f-4935f8282727
What specific warnings did Netanyahu allegedly receive from foreign intelligence regarding the October 7 attacks, and how did he respond to these reports?
Reports from outlets including Haaretz, the New York Times, The Atlantic, and the Wall Street Journal suggest that Netanyahu received warnings days before the attacks. Specifically, it was reported that UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed warned Netanyahu that Hamas was planning a major operation, and that Egyptian intelligence chief Abbas Kamel provided a similar warning. Netanyahu has denied receiving these warnings from either the UAE or Egypt and has taken legal action by suing several media outlets and journalists who reported on these warnings.
Q&A ID 0daad800-05bc-4e8d-9472-314ef1b08759
What are the primary political issues facing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the upcoming Israeli election three years after the October 7 attacks?
The central issue is Netanyahu's personal culpability for the October 7 security failure, which resulted in the deaths of approximately 1,200 people. The opposition accuses him of refusing to take responsibility or allow an independent inquiry into the Hamas attacks. Additionally, Netanyahu's political survival is at stake, as his coalition is currently polling between 50-54 seats, short of the 61 needed for a majority. His legal future is also linked to the election; losing power could remove his ability to influence his ongoing corruption trial, while winning could allow him to claim a popular mandate to thwart the proceedings.
Q&A ID c3f8a8bb-32f6-47e2-b171-74bc6abdba4e