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AXIOS (Neil Irwin) - What would a rate hike signal about the new Fed chief's MO?

The Federal Reserve typically telegraphs its interest rate moves in advance, then follows through. This week will provide the clearest evidence yet on whether chairman Kevin Warsh is ending the era of the no-surprises Fed. The big picture: Markets are now putting meaningful odds on the Fed delivering an interest rate hike at the conclusion of its two-day meeting this week. - If the Federal Open Market Committee were to do so, it would suggest a new era in which the central bank is less predictable — accepting more volatility and surprise as the price to be paid for greater policy nimbleness. State of play: In the final public communications before the Fed entered its pre-meeting blackout period, signs were pointing to the FOMC leaving…

The Federal Reserve typically telegraphs its interest rate moves in advance, then follows through. This week will provide the clearest evidence yet on whether chairman Kevin Warsh is ending the era of the no-surprises Fed. The big picture: Markets are now putting meaningful odds on the Fed delivering an interest rate hike at the conclusion of its two-day meeting this week. - If the Federal Open Market Committee were to do so, it would suggest a new era in which the central bank is less predictable — accepting more volatility and surprise as the price to be paid for greater policy nimbleness. State of play: In the final public communications before the Fed entered its pre-meeting blackout period, signs were pointing to the FOMC leaving…Open

AXIOS (Barak Ravid) - Trump to Axios: I'm ready for "strong military action" if Iran talks fail

President Trump told Axios on Monday that he decided to pause U.S. strikes on Iran in order to give negotiations another chance, but stressed that he could order a return to expanded military operations if diplomacy fails. Why it matters: The current negotiations are focused on a new deal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and relaunch talks on a comprehensive nuclear deal. - The talks are being conducted mainly between Iran and Oman. But Qatar, Pakistan, Egypt and Trump's envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, are actively involved. What he's saying: "We are in very deep talks with Iran. If they don't work out, we will go back to very strong military action," Trump said in the interview. - Asked how long he's willing to give…

President Trump told Axios on Monday that he decided to pause U.S. strikes on Iran in order to give negotiations another chance, but stressed that he could order a return to expanded military operations if diplomacy fails. Why it matters: The current negotiations are focused on a new deal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and relaunch talks on a comprehensive nuclear deal. - The talks are being conducted mainly between Iran and Oman. But Qatar, Pakistan, Egypt and Trump's envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, are actively involved. What he's saying: "We are in very deep talks with Iran. If they don't work out, we will go back to very strong military action," Trump said in the interview. - Asked how long he's willing to give…Open