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U.S. and Israeli officials indicate that Iranian leaders are deeply suspicious of President Trump's statements and are seeking to avoid a third surprise attack.

President Trump stated that the U.S. and Iran are having productive discussions, though there are currently no signs that the major differences between the two sides have narrowed.

The Pentagon instructed U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) several days prior to the announcement to conclude preparations for resuming major combat operations in Iran.

Resuming the war within a three to four-week window could have influenced the U.S. midterms due to a potential rise in oil prices. Additionally, it could have influenced Israel's elections, which were scheduled for Oct. 27, as Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir indicated that a resumption of war could lead to the postponement of those elections because Iran would likely respond by launching missiles at Israel.

Jobless claims do not capture every layoff because some workers may receive severance packages, some may not qualify for benefits, and others may find the application process too cumbersome to complete.

The data suggests an unusual combination where employers appear reluctant to hire, but are equally reluctant to fire workers. This stability on the "firing" side of the labor market is helping to keep unemployment low, even while the pace of hiring has slowed.

Announced job cuts fell by 20% from a year earlier in September, according to data from the firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

The four-week average of jobless claims fell to 198,000, which is its lowest level since the period of 2022–2023, which was characterized as a red-hot job market.

Last week, Vice Chair Philip Jefferson and New York Fed President John Williams both made explicit comments waving away expectations of a second rate increase at the meeting concluding on October 28.

Waller expressed concern that the recent acceleration in inflation—following what will soon be five and a half years of inflation remaining above the FOMC's target—could lead consumers, investors, and price-setting businesses to revise upward their expectations for future inflation.

The current approach is described as a cautious recalibration and a limited operation rather than a sustained, open-ended tightening cycle. Unlike the 2022 cycle intended to break the back of inflation, the current strategy is a "take-your-time" effort to calibrate policy for a mix of solid labor market results, accelerating growth, and elevated inflation without threatening a damaging economic slowdown.

Christopher Waller used a 0.75-point adjustment as a hypothetical cumulative adjustment during his speech. Analysis of the communications suggests this may hint at a total of three rate hikes in the current adjustment cycle, which would amount to a 0.75 percentage point increase, similar in size to easing cycles in 2019 and 2025.