NYTIMES (Nate Cohn) - Are Political Polls Accurate?
We look at recent problems with political polling.
NYTIMES (Ruth Igielnik, Jillian Eugenios, Seth Carlson, Santiago García Muñoz, Lauren Pruitt, Thomas Trudeau, Mike Abrams and Patrick Healy) - What Can a Poll Tell Us?
Everyone wants to know who will win an election, but polls do more than predicting outcomes. The polling reporter Ruth Igielnik shares how polls are also judged on their ability to reveal electorate dynamics.
YOUTUBE (Newsmax) - Can You Trust the Polls? John McLaughlin Explains What the Headlines Miss | Greta Wire | NEWSMAX
Today on Greta Wire: - Veteran pollster John McLaughlin explains why polling remains an inexact science shaped by methodology, sample selection and changing technology. - McLaughlin analyzes the Michigan poll that predicts an Abdul El-Sayed landslide before he wins by only one point. - He revisits the Iowa survey showing Kamala Harris ahead shortly before Donald Trump wins the state by more than 13 points. - McLaughlin reveals how polling adults instead of likely voters can produce deeply misleading election headlines. - John urges reporters to examine a poll’s sponsor, sample, timing and exact wording before repeating its results. Today’s podcast is sponsored by : PARAMOUNT PLUS - Don’t Miss “Lioness” - all episodes now…
AXIOS (Neil Irwin) - Inflation measurement tweaks make for sunnier data
Changes to the methodology underneath the Federal Reserve's go-to inflation measure are on track to make the numbers look a couple of ticks better later this year. Why it matters: The changes are entirely defensible on technical grounds and should make the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index better able to mirror overall price dynamics over time. - But coming at a fraught moment — when the independence of statistical agencies has been attacked and the Fed has overshot its inflation target for half a decade — the optics aren't great. State of play: The Bureau of Economic Analysis, which calculates the PCE inflation measure, announced late last month the methodological changes to how price changes are calculated in three…
Changes to the methodology underneath the Federal Reserve's go-to inflation measure are on track to make the numbers look a couple of ticks better later this year. Why it matters: The changes are entirely defensible on technical grounds and should make the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index better able to mirror overall price dynamics over time. - But coming at a fraught moment — when the independence of statistical agencies has been attacked and the Fed has overshot its inflation target for half a decade — the optics aren't great. State of play: The Bureau of Economic Analysis, which calculates the PCE inflation measure, announced late last month the methodological changes to how price changes are calculated in three…Open
AMERICANTHINKER - Research can prove anything--even envy
There are lies, damned lies, and educational research.
NYTIMES (Oliver Whang) - Why It’s Crucial We Understand How A.I. ‘Thinks’
For us to trust it on certain subjects, researchers in the growing field of interpretability might need to learn how to open the black box of its brain.
NYTIMES (Apoorva Mandavilli) - Top C.D.C. Official Delays Report on Covid Shot’s Effectiveness
Dr. Jay Bhattacharya objected to the study’s methodology, saying it gave an inaccurate picture of the vaccine’s benefits.
WASHINGTONPOST (Lena H. Sun) - CDC delays publishing report showing covid vaccine benefits
The acting CDC director cited concerns with the methodology, but the design has long been used to test vaccine effectiveness.
NYTIMES (Carl Zimmer) - Can Science Predict When a Study Won’t Hold Up?
Conducting research is hard; confirming the results is, too. And artificial intelligence isn’t yet ready to help, a major new study finds.
NYTIMES (Ben Casselman) - Change in Data Sources Led to Lower Inflation Reading
A methodological change contributed to a better-than-expected inflation report, prompting questions from some economists.