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AXIOS (Barak Ravid) - Trump moves closer to a major war with Iran

The Trump administration is closer to a major war in the Middle East than most Americans realize. It could begin very soon. Why it matters: A U.S. military operation in Iran would likely be a massive, weeks-long campaign that would look more like full-fledged war than last month's pinpoint operation in Venezuela, sources say. - The sources noted it would likely be a joint U.S.-Israeli campaign that's much broader in scope — and more existential for the regime — than the Israeli-led 12-day war last June, which the U.S. eventually joined to take out Iran's underground nuclear facilities. - Such a war would have a dramatic influence on the entire region and major implications for the remaining three years of the Trump presidency. -…

AXIOS (Russell Contreras) - Survey: Americans aren't as racially divided as we think

Data: Gallup/Brookings Institution's Center for Community Uplift; Chart: Axios Visuals Most Americans say race doesn't drive their daily decisions, even as the country feels more divided than ever, a new national survey finds. Why it matters: Politics and social media amplify racial division. But in daily life — at work, in friendships and in families — Americans report far more interracial contact, and far less race-based decision-making, than the national mood suggests. - The shift is largely generational, driven by rising interracial marriage and changing demographics, dramatically reshaping of daily life. - Meanwhile, high-profile racist rhetoric on social media — including from national political figures — reinforces a…

AXIOS (Russell Contreras) - Where Christian nationalism is most dominant in U.S. states

Data: PRRI; Note: Map shows the share who were classified as "adherents" or "sympathizers" based on their responses to five questions; Map: Erin Davis/Axios Visuals Christian nationalism is now deeply entrenched inside today's Republican Party, according to a sweeping 50-state survey. Why it matters: The once-fringe ideology holds that the U.S. was founded as a Christian nation and should be governed according to strict Christian values, even as the country becomes less religious and more racially diverse . - The divide reflects a broader clash over whether America's future is pluralistic or rooted in a singular religious-national identity. By the numbers: About one-third of Americans qualify as Christian nationalism "adherents" or…