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AXIOS (Courtenay Brown) - What $5 diesel fuel means for the U.S. economy

Data: AAA ; Chart: Axios Visuals The price of diesel fuel has surged above $5 a gallon in the U.S., the highest in four years, creating new inflationary pressure on anything Americans buy that relies on truck transport — which is to say, pretty much everything. Driving the news: The average retail price of a gallon of diesel was $5.04 Tuesday, AAA says, up from $3.65 a month ago. - That amounts to a 38% one-month rise in the price of diesel, surpassing even the 30% rise in the price of regular unleaded gasoline over that span. - The Iran war has choked off supplies of crude oil and other commodities from the Persian Gulf, driving up global prices. State of play: Most Americans have little direct exposure to diesel prices;…

Data: AAA ; Chart: Axios Visuals The price of diesel fuel has surged above $5 a gallon in the U.S., the highest in four years, creating new inflationary pressure on anything Americans buy that relies on truck transport — which is to say, pretty much everything. Driving the news: The average retail price of a gallon of diesel was $5.04 Tuesday, AAA says, up from $3.65 a month ago. - That amounts to a 38% one-month rise in the price of diesel, surpassing even the 30% rise in the price of regular unleaded gasoline over that span. - The Iran war has choked off supplies of crude oil and other commodities from the Persian Gulf, driving up global prices. State of play: Most Americans have little direct exposure to diesel prices;…Open

AXIOS (Courtenay Brown) - New economic projections signal a tricky Federal Reserve path

The Federal Reserve will almost certainly hold rates steady, but fresh economic projections and other communications due out Wednesday afternoon will show how the central bank is absorbing two uncomfortable realities at once. Why it matters: The energy shock from the Iran war adds a new factor to the Fed's complicated calculus. Inflation is running hotter than expected, even before the war's impact materializes in the data. Labor market data has been grim, and it's unclear how a sustained oil shock could weigh more heavily on the economy. - Whatever the projections show will set the table for Fed chair Jerome Powell's successor, Kevin Warsh. What they're saying: "The new dot plot likely will indicate that most members retain a bias to…

The Federal Reserve will almost certainly hold rates steady, but fresh economic projections and other communications due out Wednesday afternoon will show how the central bank is absorbing two uncomfortable realities at once. Why it matters: The energy shock from the Iran war adds a new factor to the Fed's complicated calculus. Inflation is running hotter than expected, even before the war's impact materializes in the data. Labor market data has been grim, and it's unclear how a sustained oil shock could weigh more heavily on the economy. - Whatever the projections show will set the table for Fed chair Jerome Powell's successor, Kevin Warsh. What they're saying: "The new dot plot likely will indicate that most members retain a bias to…Open