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AXIOS (Kate Santaliz) - Trump and GOP plot strategy Tue Mar 10 23:36:52 2026

DORAL, Fla. — President Trump's top advisers are urging House Republicans to turn the 2026 midterms into a choice election — and hammer Democrats on taxes, crime and border security . Why it matters: Midterm elections are almost always referendums on the president and the party in power. - But Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and Trump are looking to buck history and retain the House by focusing on the Democrats' national brand , with 52% of voters viewing the Democratic Party unfavorably. Driving the news: At the House GOP retreat in sunny Doral, Florida, (high 84°) White House deputy chief of staff James Blair told lawmakers to stop emphasizing "mass deportations," Axios scooped earlier Tuesday. - Mass deportations were central to the GOP's 2024 campaign message, so Blair's advice captured attention. Instead, he told lawmakers, focus on deporting violent offenders. - The emerging strategy: remind voters of Democrats' Biden-era positions on crime, cashless bail and open borders, according to people familiar with the matter. Zoom in: Blair was on a closed-door panel with Chris LaCivita, Trump's 2024 co-campaign manager, and Chris Winkelman, president of the Congressional Leadership Fund, an outside super PAC associated with Johnson. - The panelists, led by National Republican Congressional Committee Chair Richard Hudson, reminded lawmakers of the GOP's unprecedented cash advantage . - In a cycle with a small map, the party with stronger organization and clearer lines of control has the edge, the panelists said. - Blair also told GOP lawmakers to remember how Trump won in 2024. He challenged conventional wisdom: Don't feed into Democratic talking points, he said. Zoom out: History is not on the GOP's side this November. - Republicans lost 41 House seats in Trump's first midterm. President Obama's Democrats lost 63 seats in 2010, the first midterm after he was elected. - Lawmakers in both parties are fleeing Congress at a record rate, with 34 Republicans and 21 Democrats planning to leave the House at the end of this Congress. - Trump is also a drag on Republicans as his favorability rating remains well underwater, with his approval rating in the low 40s. Historically, the party with more departures tends to lose seats , and often the majority. - But with a smaller map — around two dozen seats in toss-up districts — Democrats would need to outperform Vice President Harris by 3% to win the majority .