News chronological

AXIOS (Ben Geman) - GOP faces gas pump problem at the polls Thu Apr 30 13:33:43 2026

Data: Brookings Institution; Chart: Ben Geman/Axios People in Republican congressional districts tend to drive further — and that could worsen the party's midterm woes as fuel costs soar. Why it matters: Pump prices are poised to play an outsized role in November, especially if the stalemate over the Strait of Hormuz persists. - Democrats and allied groups are seeking to make Iran war-driven price increases a major campaign theme . President Trump met with oil executives earlier this week to discuss the war's energy fallout. Threat level: "Many Republican House members in Congress could be especially threatened; their average constituent drives 26% more miles than a Democratic member's average constituent," a new Brookings Institution analysis finds. - And gas use is pretty resistant to big changes even when prices spike. Driving isn't especially optional for huge numbers of people, especially in more rural or sprawling areas. - Several closely watched states, such as Arizona, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania, had gas prices on Wednesday above the national average. - Still, a number of states with the lowest prices tend to be GOP-leaning. Zoom in: A $1 climb in the average cost of gasoline leads to the country's median-earning, two-driver households spending $70 more per month to fill up, per Brookings. - As of Wednesday, U.S. regular gasoline averaged $4.23 per gallon, up roughly a dollar and a quarter since the war started. Prices are slated to keep climbing alongside crude oil's latest spike in recent days. - Low- and moderate-income families take the biggest hit. In 2024, households in the lowest-earning income quintile who had access to a car spent 10.3% of all pre-tax income on gasoline, per Brookings. - It was 5.2% in the second-lowest quintile. Yes, but: There are forces that could cushion the political blow for Republican House and Senate candidates. - Spending to fill up as a share of income "remains well off its historical highs," a Bank of America analysis finds, though it cautions that prices are nonetheless "stretching household budgets." - Gasoline's slice of consumer expenses was higher in 2022 than now, and comfortably below the 5% reached in 2008, 2011 and 2012, it notes. Friction point: Energy Secretary Chris Wright has been emphasizing that gasoline prices are far below the Biden-era peak, when per AAA they reached $5.02 per gallon in mid-2022. What we're watching: Competitive races, including Michigan's Senate contest, in states with prices that have seen sharp rises. Sign up here for Axios' Future of Energy newsletter.

Data: Brookings Institution; Chart: Ben Geman/Axios People in Republican congressional districts tend to drive further — and that could worsen the party's midterm woes as fuel costs soar. Why it matters: Pump prices are poised to play an outsized role in November, especially if the stalemate over the Strait of Hormuz persists. - Democrats and allied groups are seeking to make Iran war-driven price increases a major campaign theme . President Trump met with oil executives earlier this week to discuss the war's energy fallout. Threat level: "Many Republican House members in Congress could be especially threatened; their average constituent drives 26% more miles than a Democratic member's average constituent," a new Brookings Institution analysis finds. - And gas use is pretty resistant to big changes even when prices spike. Driving isn't especially optional for huge numbers of people, especially in more rural or sprawling areas. - Several closely watched states, such as Arizona, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania, had gas prices on Wednesday above the national average. - Still, a number of states with the lowest prices tend to be GOP-leaning. Zoom in: A $1 climb in the average cost of gasoline leads to the country's median-earning, two-driver households spending $70 more per month to fill up, per Brookings. - As of Wednesday, U.S. regular gasoline averaged $4.23 per gallon, up roughly a dollar and a quarter since the war started. Prices are slated to keep climbing alongside crude oil's latest spike in recent days. - Low- and moderate-income families take the biggest hit. In 2024, households in the lowest-earning income quintile who had access to a car spent 10.3% of all pre-tax income on gasoline, per Brookings. - It was 5.2% in the second-lowest quintile. Yes, but: There are forces that could cushion the political blow for Republican House and Senate candidates. - Spending to fill up as a share of income "remains well off its historical highs," a Bank of America analysis finds, though it cautions that prices are nonetheless "stretching household budgets." - Gasoline's slice of consumer expenses was higher in 2022 than now, and comfortably below the 5% reached in 2008, 2011 and 2012, it notes. Friction point: Energy Secretary Chris Wright has been emphasizing that gasoline prices are far below the Biden-era peak, when per AAA they reached $5.02 per gallon in mid-2022. What we're watching: Competitive races, including Michigan's Senate contest, in states with prices that have seen sharp rises. Sign up here for Axios' Future of Energy newsletter.