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AXIOS (Courtenay Brown) - There are early signs of renewed labor market strength during Iran war

The 1970s oil-shock playbook needs an update: The inflation costs remain, but the employment risks appear far smaller than they did 50 years ago. Why it matters: As the Iran war continues, there are early signs of renewed strength in the labor market. - If energy disruptions pose less of a risk to jobs, the challenge for central banks shifts from managing stagflation risks to guarding against renewed price pressures. That's the takeaway from new Federal Reserve Bank of Boston research that finds an oil shock the size of what the Iran war has produced would push inflation materially higher while having essentially no effect on national employment. What they're saying: "The U.S. economy's vulnerability to oil shocks has not been…

AXIOS (Courtenay Brown) - Economists are questioning the K-shaped economy narrative

The K-shaped economy — wealthy Americans propping up consumer spending while poorer consumers increasingly pull back — has become the economic consensus. - One big problem: Some economists warn that the narrative has outrun the data supporting it. Why it matters: The narrative has seeped into how CEOs explain spending patterns and how economic policymakers think about risk. Getting this wrong may make the economy look more resilient than it is, with less of a shock absorber than previously believed if conditions turn quickly. What they're saying: "The narrative of K-shaped growth appears to be exaggerated, downplaying risks of a fragile expansion," a team of economists at Barclays wrote in a note earlier this month. The intrigue: The…