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CENTERFORSECURITYPOLICY (David Wurmser) - What does victory and surrender in Iran mean?

Originally published by JNS

When President Trump stated that he expects this war with Iran to end with an unconditional surrender, it set off a debate over what that might mean and how it will happen. The answer to how and when the Iranian regime no longer has an option of continuing rests on how one understands the nature of the Iranian regime. Some believe that regime’s bottom line remains the preservation of the Islamic Revolution. Any compromise could be entertained were it to help secure the longevity and resilience of that revolution. There is indeed the precedent of 1988 when the regime appealed to just that argument to justify agreeing to an obnoxious ceasefire to the Iran-Iraq war. But some never accepted that ceasefire and issued from a different…Open

CENTERFORSECURITYPOLICY (David Wurmser) - Let Israel start, and let the Iranians win

Originally published by jns

Strategy in the Middle East emanates not from Western concepts or culture, but from a mastery of manipulation, even irrespective of balance of power. U.S. President Donald Trump has done much to stabilize the Middle East and support Israel, but as during the Iran-Israel 12-day war in June 2025, it is imperative that Israel should once again do this operation as much alone as it can. Not only should it initiate and go first, but it must also remain the heavy-lifter and guide this through. In retrospect, one can argue that it would have been better last summer to avoid having “Operation Rising Lion” become “Operation Midnight Hammer,” although managing American pressure to intervene was complicated. And yet, had the war required…Open