The Iran war has divided the global outlook into two tracks: - A modest slowdown if the conflict ends soon or a severe hit, with some economies near recession, if it drags on and the disruption deepens. Why it matters: Either path leaves the global economy worse off than before the war, with slower growth and hotter inflation. The scenarios determine the scale of the damage. - It's the latest reminder of how a single chokepoint can upend the world economy, the same supply-side dynamic behind most of the past half-decade's inflation shocks. - The AI investment boom that is helping offset that pain could leave the economy more fragile down the line, with its technology tying the world to those very chokepoints. What they're saying: "The…
A new estimate from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development warns that the war in Iran could drive inflation up to 4.2%, far higher than the Federal Reserve’s 2.7% projection. NewsNation’s Alicia Nieves has the latest. Start your day with "Morning in America," NewsNation's live three-hour national weekend morning newscast hosted by Hena Doba. Saturday and Sunday starting at 7a/6C. #MorningInAmerica NewsNation is your source for fact-based, unbiased news for all Americans.
Americans desperately want day-to-day life to be more affordable . Right now, they aren't getting it. The big picture: The pinch of high prices for food, energy, housing and more has driven seismic shifts in public opinion over the last four years. Since the onset of the Iran war, the cost of living looks likely to get worse, not better, at least in the near term. - Energy prices are surging, interest rates are on the rise, and the stock market is looking wobbly — a triple whammy for U.S. households. By the numbers: The national average for a gallon of gasoline is poised to surpass $4, up from about $3 a month ago — and is set to rise further the longer the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked. - Even before the latest energy shock,…
The Middle East conflict wiped out what would have been a modest upgrade to global growth and a stable inflation picture. - That has been replaced with a fresh warning about soaring energy costs and U.S. prices, which are projected to run far hotter than expected. Why it matters: What was a more manageable inflation story now looks like a pressure test for central banks that may need to raise interest rates — or hold off on further cuts — even as growth weakens. - Governments already carrying huge debt loads might need to spend more to cushion the blow for households. What they're saying: "The energy price surge and the unpredictable nature of the evolving conflict in the Middle East will raise costs and lower demand, offsetting…
