AXIOS (Neil Irwin) - Nobody's sure where the Federal Reserve is heading
Predicting what the Federal Reserve will do next has become an exercise in trying to game out the tactical instincts of a new chairman who isn't giving the world much to work with. Why it matters: While it's early days in the Kevin Warsh chairmanship, his reaction function — the way he is likely to respond to incoming information about the economy — is a black box. - It means that a wide range of possibilities for interest rate policy this year remain in play — from multiple rate hikes starting in late July, to leaving rates steady indefinitely. - Warsh's policy direction should become clearer once he speaks more publicly and as incoming data sheds light on how quickly the inflationary pressures unleashed by the Iran war will…
Predicting what the Federal Reserve will do next has become an exercise in trying to game out the tactical instincts of a new chairman who isn't giving the world much to work with. Why it matters: While it's early days in the Kevin Warsh chairmanship, his reaction function — the way he is likely to respond to incoming information about the economy — is a black box. - It means that a wide range of possibilities for interest rate policy this year remain in play — from multiple rate hikes starting in late July, to leaving rates steady indefinitely. - Warsh's policy direction should become clearer once he speaks more publicly and as incoming data sheds light on how quickly the inflationary pressures unleashed by the Iran war will…Open