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AXIOS (Amy Harder) - A closed Strait of Hormuz was once unthinkable

A fully closed Strait of Hormuz was long seen as unthinkable — and unmanageable if it happened — based on past modeling and interviews with energy experts. Why it matters: That conventional wisdom underscores just how unprecedented today's closure is — and how little playbook exists for what could come next. The intrigue: In at least two major exercises assessing potential oil disruptions — one in 2007 and another in 2022 — energy experts considered a full shutdown of the strait but ultimately didn't model it in their planning. - In both cases, they judged it either too unlikely or too large in scale to meaningfully plan around. - "The idea was laughed out of the room," said Sam Ori, who worked on the 2007 exercise at the…

AXIOS (Nathan Bomey) - Exclusive: Kalshi announces steps to keep kids off prediction market

Kalshi is putting in place new tools to prevent minors from trading on the prediction market , but is resisting calls to block ages 18-20. Why it matters: Prediction markets are surging in popularity as a way to risk money on sports, politics and news — but they're also facing mounting political scrutiny over their contribution to America's gambling culture . Driving the news: Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour tells Axios that while kids are already banned from trading on the platform, the company is taking several additional steps to prevent them from doing so, including: - Requiring all users to use facial recognition technology when opening the app, making it more difficult for kids to use family accounts to log in. - Requesting selfies…

AXIOS (Madison Mills) - AI godfather Yann LeCun's advice on college, work and breaking through AI hype

If AI doomerism is freaking you out, consider the advice of Yann LeCun, former Meta AI chief and a scientist with over 40 years of experience in the field. Why it matters: As CEOs warn of job loss and existential risk, Turing award-winning LeCun argues the real danger is making life-altering decisions based on exaggerated claims about the future of the technology. The big picture: The leading AI scientist warns that doom narratives are already harming teens' mental health, calling extinction fears "extremely destructive" — and wrong. - "A small proportion of high school students are actually kind of depressed because they've read that AI is not only going to take a job, but basically cause human extinction," he said. "They take that…

AXIOS (Barak Ravid) - "He wants action": Trump's frustration with Iran stalemate sparked Hormuz gambit

President Trump was fed up with the "no deal, no war" stalemate in Iran . The operation he ordered to change that dynamic could ultimately lead back to war. - "The president wants action. He doesn't want to sit still. He wants pressure. He wants a deal," a senior U.S. official told Axios. The intrigue: Trump was presented with a plan on Thursday night to send naval vessels through the Strait of Hormuz to open it by force. At the last minute, he opted for a more cautious approach, at least initially. Driving the news: Starting Monday, the U.S. Navy will help U.S.-flagged and other commercial ships cross the strait by advising them on how to avoid mines and standing ready to intervene if Iran attacks them. - U.S. officials say there's no…

NYTIMES (Aaron Boxerman and Sanam Mahoozi) - Iran Threatens Ships Over Trump Plan to Break Iran’s Blockade

A senior Iranian military official warned that any vessel that tries to cross the Strait of Hormuz without permission would be “at risk.”

ABCNEWS - WATCH: United flight hits light pole while landing

A United Airlines flight arriving from Italy struck a light pole and a tractor-trailer on the New Jersey Turnpike while on final approach to Newark Liberty International Airport, the airline said.

NYTIMES (Elisabetta Povoledo) - Rubio to Visit Rome, Officials Say, After Trump’s Feud With Pope and Meloni

Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s trip will come after President Trump criticized Pope Leo XIV and then turned on Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni for defending the pontiff.