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In TX-28, Republicans have narrowly outspent Democrats on Spanish-language ads in an effort to unseat incumbent Democrat Henry Cuellar.

The poll found that Latino voters in these three competitive districts have shifted from a 44%-44% split in their 2024 presidential vote to a 56%-36% preference for Democrats on the 2026 congressional ballot.

According to a new NBC News/Telemundo poll, Latinos nationally favor Democratic control of Congress by a margin of 59%-35%. This 24-point advantage is roughly double the margin found in the same poll during 2024.

In TX-34, Democratic campaigns and groups spent $2.7 million on Spanish-language ads compared to $1.6 million spent by Republicans. In TX-15, Democratic groups have spent more than twice as much as Republican groups on Spanish-language advertisements.

The district, which was a symbol of Republican breakthrough with Rep. Monica De La Cruz winning her 2024 race by 14 points, has seen a significant shift. While Trump would have carried the newly-drawn district by 18 percentage points in 2024, the Cook Political Report moved the race from Lean Republican to a Toss Up on September 25, 2026, noting that polling shows the race tied or favoring Democrat Bobby Pulido.

In 2024 exit polls, Donald Trump won 55% of the Texas Latino vote. He also carried 14 of the 18 counties located within 20 miles of the border and won all four counties in the Rio Grande Valley.