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AXIOS (Kelly Tyko) - Your Easter candy is still expensive — even with cheaper cocoa Fri Apr 3 20:52:42 2026

Cocoa prices have plunged from last year's record highs — but shoppers are still paying more for Easter chocolate , Wells Fargo says. Why it matters: Once food companies raise prices, they're slow to bring them back down when ingredient costs fall — even as consumers are expected to spend a record $24.9 billion on Easter this year, according to the National Retail Federation . State of play: Major chocolate companies raised prices by up to 20% during the cocoa spike in 2024-2025, per a Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute report. - For Easter, prices are up again — with chocolate costing shoppers about 14% more year over year in early 2026, according to Datasembly data. - Over the past five years, the cost of a full Easter basket has jumped 71%, with roughly three-quarters of that increase driven by candy, according to a CouponFollow analysis . Cocoa prices — an upstream input for retail chocolate — have dropped from over $12,000 per metric ton in late 2024 to about $3,000 to $3,300 today. - But there are a number of reasons why chocolate prices haven't followed. Between the lines: Most Easter candy was made months ago, when cocoa was still far more expensive. - Chocolate makers are also still working through higher-cost cocoa they locked in earlier — and protecting margins after the recent price shock. - Executives at companies like Hershey and Mondelez say they remain hedged above current cocoa prices, limiting how quickly they can pass along savings. Zoom in: Wells Fargo's David Branch describes current pricing as a "reset," with structurally higher costs and sourcing risks keeping pressure on prices. - "What we're seeing in the U.S., including higher prices, smaller sizes and less cocoa in some products, reflects longer-term adjustments," Jonathan Horn, CEO of Treefera, tells Axios. - He added prices are "likely to stay high through 2026 and could climb further if supply expectations don't hold." What we're watching: Relief is expected — just not yet. - Supply is improving, with a modest global surplus expected this year. - Branch said consumers may start to see lower chocolate prices later this year, "hopefully in time for Halloween." The bottom line: Cocoa prices have cooled. Chocolate prices haven't — and consumers are still buying, with more than a quarter of adults purchasing Easter candy for themselves, according to a Ferrero survey .

Cocoa prices have plunged from last year's record highs — but shoppers are still paying more for Easter chocolate , Wells Fargo says. Why it matters: Once food companies raise prices, they're slow to bring them back down when ingredient costs fall — even as consumers are expected to spend a record $24.9 billion on Easter this year, according to the National Retail Federation . State of play: Major chocolate companies raised prices by up to 20% during the cocoa spike in 2024-2025, per a Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute report. - For Easter, prices are up again — with chocolate costing shoppers about 14% more year over year in early 2026, according to Datasembly data. - Over the past five years, the cost of a full Easter basket has jumped 71%, with roughly three-quarters of that increase driven by candy, according to a CouponFollow analysis . Cocoa prices — an upstream input for retail chocolate — have dropped from over $12,000 per metric ton in late 2024 to about $3,000 to $3,300 today. - But there are a number of reasons why chocolate prices haven't followed. Between the lines: Most Easter candy was made months ago, when cocoa was still far more expensive. - Chocolate makers are also still working through higher-cost cocoa they locked in earlier — and protecting margins after the recent price shock. - Executives at companies like Hershey and Mondelez say they remain hedged above current cocoa prices, limiting how quickly they can pass along savings. Zoom in: Wells Fargo's David Branch describes current pricing as a "reset," with structurally higher costs and sourcing risks keeping pressure on prices. - "What we're seeing in the U.S., including higher prices, smaller sizes and less cocoa in some products, reflects longer-term adjustments," Jonathan Horn, CEO of Treefera, tells Axios. - He added prices are "likely to stay high through 2026 and could climb further if supply expectations don't hold." What we're watching: Relief is expected — just not yet. - Supply is improving, with a modest global surplus expected this year. - Branch said consumers may start to see lower chocolate prices later this year, "hopefully in time for Halloween." The bottom line: Cocoa prices have cooled. Chocolate prices haven't — and consumers are still buying, with more than a quarter of adults purchasing Easter candy for themselves, according to a Ferrero survey .