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AXIOS (Hans Nichols) - Senate feeling good about avoiding pre-election shutdown Wed Jul 22 23:31:00 2026

Senators on both sides of the aisle are quietly hopeful about avoiding a third government shutdown this year. Why it matters: Time is short, patience is wearing thin and neither party wants to head into the campaign's final sprint under the cloud of a funding lapse. - "People understand that it would be helpful to have a [continuing resolution] that extends beyond the election," Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) told Axios. "So it doesn't get all bound up in partisan discussions around the elections." - "I just think everybody's trying to give ourselves room to find a bipartisan agreement, and we are not there yet," Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii) told Axios. - Asked whether the vibes were positive, Schatz replied: "Not negative." Republicans were even more optimistic about a bipartisan CR. - "Perhaps we can get ours passed, and then when the House comes back the last week of August, they can pass it there," Sen. Roger Wicker (R-Miss.) said. - "I don't think there's going to be much controversy there, unless the Democrats change their minds." State of play: The House passed a short-term spending bill late Tuesday night. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) will essentially ignore it. For now. - The same fate likely awaits the budget resolution Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) narrowly pushed through Wednesday afternoon on a 216-214 vote. The intrigue: House Republicans are still steaming over Thune's decision to declare, in advance, that he won't take up reconciliation until the government is funded. - "He's the leader of the Senate. I think it's a mistake to hold up such an important piece of legislation," House Budget Chair Jodey Arrington (R-Texas) told Axios. - But his new Senate counterpart, Ron Johnson (R-Wisc.), appears far more comfortable with Thune's timeline and sequencing. - "With [Senate Appropriations Chair] Susan [Collins] apparently showing progress toward a CR — even talking about a defense supplemental in that agreement — that would, to a certain extent, negate having to do one," Johnson said, referring to a separate reconciliation package. What to watch: There's no guarantee a major news event won't derail bipartisan funding talks, just as Medicaid cuts and the ICE shootings did earlier this year. - President Trump's escalation of the conflict with Iran is already complicating defense spending negotiations, with Democrats largely opposed and Republicans split over the scope of additional funding. - Any effort to attach supplemental defense money tied to Iran to the CR could make the vote significantly more difficult. Zoom out: The CR is only one item on the Senate's crowded pre-recess agenda. - FISA Section 702 remains lapsed, leaving the intelligence community without a key surveillance authority. - The Senate also must take another run at the National Defense Authorization Act after the bill stalled this month. - Thune also wants to reserve time for the CLARITY Act , but both sides acknowledge that more work needs to be done to find 60 Senate votes for the cryptocurrency bill. There is also building pressure for Thune to bring a Russia sanctions package to the floor, especially after the death of Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), who had pushed hard for the bill's passage. - And leadership is trying to clear a backlog of nominations, including Jay Clayton to serve as director of national intelligence and Todd Blanche to serve as attorney general. The bottom line: On Tuesday, Thune slyly suggested that he was prepared to use a reconciliation package to fund the government along party lines -- if needed. - He may not have to act on that threat if the bipartisan Senate progress continues.