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AXIOS (Rebecca Falconer) - America's changing disaster risk hits energy Wed Oct 7 10:01:37 2026

Hurricanes have long dominated efforts to make the power system more resilient to extreme weather . But America's energy buildout is running into growing risks from severe thunderstorms. Why it matters: New energy infrastructure and data centers are being built in harm's way as severe weather risks shift , leaving more for developers and insurers to lose when storms hit. Driving the news: Severe thunderstorms account for 40% of modeled global insured catastrophe risk, compared with 27% for hurricanes , according to analysis from risk analytics firm Verisk. - The U.S. accounts for $117 billion, or 68%, of Verisk's modeled global insured catastrophe losses . Threat level: A warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, potentially creating more favorable conditions for powerful thunderstorms. But the effects of climate change on severe storms are complicated. - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration research scientist Harold Brooks told Axios that other atmospheric conditions needed for severe storms may become less favorable as the planet warms. Reality check: Verisk's Jay Guin said growing exposure, more than climate change, is the dominant driver of rising insured losses, as more and increasingly valuable property is built in harm's way. - Guin says climate change contributes, but expanding development and higher reconstruction costs are much larger drivers. Zoom in: America's changing energy system is creating new kinds of exposure. - Verisk is assessing risks to renewable projects in tornado- and hail-prone areas, where Guin said large hail can cause major damage to solar farms. - "While they are renewable, you have a new asset class that is quite vulnerable," he said. - Data-center developers must balance natural-hazard exposure against access to land, power and water. Some sites have billions in property and hardware, raising the stakes for siting and engineering. State of play: Tornado activity has increased about 10% in the Mid-South while declining by roughly the same amount from the Texas Panhandle through western Kansas, Brooks said. - Population densities in rural areas of the Southeast are roughly 100 times those in the High Plains. - "It's 10 people per square kilometer in rural areas of northern Mississippi and Alabama, and so a tornado in that area can't miss buildings and can't miss people," Brooks says. Zoom out: For infrastructure, Brooks said the biggest thunderstorm-related concern is flooding. - Heavy rain and flooding are "a huge threat to virtually all of our infrastructure," he said. The bottom line: "There is no ... safe climate zone," Guin said.