AXIOS (Hans Nichols) - The math behind a Democratic wave — or a GOP upset
Data: The Downballot and Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics. (Balance of power accounts for opposing party gains due to redistricting.) Map: Kavya Beheraj/Axios Redistricting has helped House Republicans build a seawall that can withstand a roughly 5-point Democratic wave. Why it matters: Early readings are pointing to something twice that size — enough to wash away the GOP House majority. Democrats have been running roughly 10 points ahead of their 2024 presidential performance in special elections this year. - A swing of that magnitude would produce a comfortable 230-205 Democratic majority, according to an Axios analysis of how the battle for the House would play out under different…