Data: The Downballot and Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics. (Balance of power accounts for opposing party gains due to redistricting.) Map: Kavya Beheraj/Axios Redistricting has helped House Republicans build a seawall that can withstand a roughly 5-point Democratic wave. Why it matters: Early readings are pointing to something twice that size — enough to wash away the GOP House majority. Democrats have been running roughly 10 points ahead of their 2024 presidential performance in special elections this year. - A swing of that magnitude would produce a comfortable 230-205 Democratic majority, according to an Axios analysis of how the battle for the House would play out under different…
The battle for Senate control has tightened to a virtual coin flip, according to Decision Desk HQ’s latest forecast. DDHQ’s Geoffrey Skelley explains what is driving the shift towards Democrats and which races could determine the majority. Watch the full episode: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/data-nerds/6068929-abdul-el-sayed-democratic-tensions-michigan-senate-race-discussion/ #senate #midterms #elections #electionforecast #ddhq #decisiondeskhq #democrats #dems #republicans #gop #datanerds #2026midterms #2026election #elections2026
The common 2026 midterms narrative is that Democrats will take the House while Republicans hold the Senate. Geoffrey Skelley explains why Decision Desk HQ’s forecast suggests the races may be more connected than that, with one party potentially gaining full control. #democrats #dems #republicans #gop #congress #midterms #2026election #2026 #midterms2026 #house #senate #decisiondeskhq #ddhq #electionforecast #datanerds
Decision Desk HQ’s House forecast gives Democrats about a 61 percent chance of winning the majority, but the race is far from a certainty. The Hill's Bill Sammon and DDHQ's Geoffrey Skelley break down why a tightening generic ballot and redistricting dynamics could make the fight for control of the House more competitive than many expected. Watch the full episode here: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/data-nerds/5971626-ddhq-election-forecast-2026-midterms-live-discussion/ #ddhq #decisiondeskhq #democrats #dems #republicans #gop #midterms #election2026 #2026election #datanerds #electionforecast #house
A new Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) forecast predicts Democrats will win the House this fall, while Republicans are set to maintain control of the Senate in a 50-50 split. DDHQ forecasts Democrats clinching a 226-209 advantage in the House and predicts Republicans will narrowly retain power with Vice President Vance as the tiebreaker vote in a 50-50 Senate. Geoffrey Skelley joined Sunrise on The Hill to discuss the overall takeaways for the upcoming midterm elections. #midtermelectionss #house #senate
Democrats are in position to win the House this fall while the Senate is on track to hold a 50-50 partisan split, according to a new forecast from Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) that paints a highly competitive picture of the midterm fight for control of Congress. Just more than 100 days out from the election, DDHQ forecasts Democrats clinching a 226-209 advantage in the House and predicts Republicans will narrowly retain power with Vice President Vance as the tiebreaker vote in a 50-50 Senate. Read More: https://thehill.com/homenews/house/5969201-house-republicans-reconciliation-budget-resolution/ #house #senate #congress #election #midterms2026
