CNN’s Chief Data Analyst Harry Enten combed through thousands of polls and ran the odds to figure out what the most—and least—likely outcomes are for the 2026 midterm election to answer a crucial questions: Who will control the power of the purse come November? 0:00 Harry figures out the most likely scenarios are for Washington control after the midterms 0:28 What’s the LEAST likely scenario? 2:45 What is an unlikely, but possible scenario? Let’s look at the math. 5:34 What is the second most likely scenario for the House and the Senate? 8:22 Harry delivers breaking news — a poll hot off the presses 9:51 What is the MOST likely expected outcome from the midterm elections, at over 50% likelihood? 13:31 How will Donald Trump’s…
Everyone wants to know who will win an election, but polls do more than predicting outcomes. The polling reporter Ruth Igielnik shares how polls are also judged on their ability to reveal electorate dynamics.
After Graham Platner’s withdrawal from the Maine Senate race, where do Democrats have the best chances to flip Senate seats? The Hill's Bill Sammon and Decision Desk HQ's Geoffrey Skelley rank North Carolina, Iowa, Ohio, Alaska, Maine, and Texas as the party looks to steady itself to retake the upper chamber from Republicans. Watch the full episode here: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/data-nerds/5960670-maine-senate-race-shakeup-platner-exit-live-discussion/ #grahamplatner #platner #senate #democrats #dems #midterms #elections2026 #maine #northcarolina #texas #iowa #ohio #alaska #republicans #gop #datanerds
In their rush to find a strong candidate to run again Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), Democrats should have more thoroughly vetted their party's nominee.
The Maine race, which both parties see as key to winning control of the Senate, is extremely close, a Times/Portland Press Herald/Siena poll found. Both candidates have reasons for concern.
The Maine race, which both parties see as key to winning control of the Senate, is extremely close as the sprint to fall begins, a Times/Portland Press Herald/Siena poll found.
