We look at recent problems with political polling.
AI:The mainstream media's reliance on broken metrics has reached a breaking point as Nate Cohn examines the systemic failure of modern political polling to capture reality. While the establishment press clings to these flawed numbers, it is becoming increasingly evident that current methodologies are failing to reflect true voter sentiment, leaving both analysts and the public in the dark.Open
Everyone wants to know who will win an election, but polls do more than predicting outcomes. The polling reporter Ruth Igielnik shares how polls are also judged on their ability to reveal electorate dynamics.
Today on Greta Wire: - Veteran pollster John McLaughlin explains why polling remains an inexact science shaped by methodology, sample selection and changing technology. - McLaughlin analyzes the Michigan poll that predicts an Abdul El-Sayed landslide before he wins by only one point. - He revisits the Iowa survey showing Kamala Harris ahead shortly before Donald Trump wins the state by more than 13 points. - McLaughlin reveals how polling adults instead of likely voters can produce deeply misleading election headlines. - John urges reporters to examine a poll’s sponsor, sample, timing and exact wording before repeating its results. Today’s podcast is sponsored by : PARAMOUNT PLUS - Don’t Miss “Lioness” - all episodes now…
Changes to the methodology underneath the Federal Reserve's go-to inflation measure are on track to make the numbers look a couple of ticks better later this year. Why it matters: The changes are entirely defensible on technical grounds and should make the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index better able to mirror overall price dynamics over time. - But coming at a fraught moment — when the independence of statistical agencies has been attacked and the Fed has overshot its inflation target for half a decade — the optics aren't great. State of play: The Bureau of Economic Analysis, which calculates the PCE inflation measure, announced late last month the methodological changes to how price changes are calculated in three…
There are lies, damned lies, and educational research.
For us to trust it on certain subjects, researchers in the growing field of interpretability might need to learn how to open the black box of its brain.
Dr. Jay Bhattacharya objected to the study’s methodology, saying it gave an inaccurate picture of the vaccine’s benefits.
The acting CDC director cited concerns with the methodology, but the design has long been used to test vaccine effectiveness.
Conducting research is hard; confirming the results is, too. And artificial intelligence isn’t yet ready to help, a major new study finds.
A methodological change contributed to a better-than-expected inflation report, prompting questions from some economists.