With a U.S.-Iran deal (maybe?) taking shape in coming days, the oil market that follows will look different than what preceded the war. Why it matters: The emerging deal — which would re-open the Strait of Hormuz while nuclear talks proceed — could return large amounts of barrels to the market. - It's not a moment too soon as global oil stockpiles, which have somewhat tempered the crisis, are drawn down at record pace. Reality check: Things won't be normal for a long time, and the postwar definition of normal is fluid, too. A few near-term and long-term things to watch... Confidence: In the near term, "It's all about whether vessel owners and crews feel safe transiting the Strait of Hormuz," said oil analyst Ben Cahill of UT-Austin.…
We have been told that the Iranian Navy has been destroyed. In a conventional sense, that is true. Unfortunately, this is not a conventional war. The Iranians are now employing swarms of speedboats to attack commercial vessels in the Persian Gulf. These boats don’t stand much of a chance against the U.S. Navy. They are, unfortunately, a real threat to large unarmed merchant vessels. Many of the boats in question are modified commercial or even recreational vessels. A number, however, were purpose-built for military use. They operate at high speed, have shallow drafts, low radar signatures, and good maneuverability. No one knows how many of these vessels there are. Some estimates are in the thousands. What we know for sure, though, is…Open
State of the Union: The UAE reported drone and missile strikes from Iran. The post Ceasefire Day 28: Pentagon Says Ceasefire Still in Effect After Hormuz Clashes appeared first on The American Conservative .
U.S. officials insist that a ceasefire to the Iran War—which entered its 28th day on Tuesday—is still in effect after the truce was tested by several attacks reported in the Strait of Hormuz, with the U.S. and Iran continuing to dispute control over the waterway. The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Caine told reporters on Tuesday morning that attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz have not crossed what the U.S. views as a threshold for terminating the ceasefire. “Since the ceasefire was announced, Iran has fired at commercial vessels nine times and seized two container ships, and they’ve attacked U.S. forces more than ten times—all below the threshold of restarting major combat operations at this point,” Caine…Open
U.S. Navy warships have been intercepting Iranian cruise missiles and drones targeting Gulf states and ships in the Strait of Hormuz, and Army Apache helicopters have destroyed six Iranian speedboats.
Tensions are escalating in the Gulf as U.S. forces and regional allies respond to Iranian military actions. PULSE POINTS WHAT HAPPENED: - Meanwhile, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) has denied Iranian reports that the Islamic Republic struck U.S. ships with missiles. DETAIL: The U.S. Navy’s actions come as Iran has begun targeting energy infrastructure in U.S.-aligned Gulf states again, with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) reporting a drone strike against the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone, the most substantial port and oil storage site in the country, on Monday. The gunship attacks on Iran’s boats follow a public warning from President Donald J. Trump in late April that he had issued orders to “shoot and kill any boat, small boats…Open
Data: Financial Modeling Prep ; Chart: Axios Visuals Crude oil prices are at their highest levels since the military campaign against Iran after climbing again overnight and Tuesday morning. Why it matters: The latest rise — and how it ripples through consumer prices — raises the stakes of Trump officials' upcoming plans to address costs. The latest: The Energy and Treasury Departments will begin rolling out new efforts Tuesday to address energy price increases from the Iran conflict, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said. - "We anticipated this could be an issue," he told reporters in the Capitol. He didn't offer details but said it's designed to "mitigate against" the price impact. State of play: The U.S. does not have immediate…