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AXIOS (Ben Geman) - Gas prices won't return to pre-war levels any time soon

If a U.S.-Iran peace deal actually happens this time — and that's still a big if— consumers have a long road ahead before filling up returns all the way to the good old days of early 2026. Why it matters: Even if the Strait of Hormuz opened right away, pump prices will likely remain higher — maybe a lot higher — than pre-war levels at least through the midterm elections. - U.S. retail prices are tethered to global oil markets that will be in turmoil for a while. - The average U.S. price for regular gasoline was $4.54 per gallon on Wednesday, compared to just under $3 pre-war, per AAA data. What we're watching: Some price relief would come within days of the Strait of Hormuz truly reopening, per Patrick De Haan of the market data…

AXIOS (Ben Geman) - UAE leaves OPEC to pursue "accelerated" production

The United Arab Emirates said Tuesday it's exiting OPEC after more than 50 years — a blow to the powerful alliance of big oil producers. Why it matters: The UAE is the group's third-largest producer, and the departure will make it tougher for OPEC to control output and prices. - The country has previously bristled at production quotas under OPEC's market-management strategy. - But the departure came as a surprise. Driving the news: The UAE pointed to rising energy demand over the medium- to long-term. - The decision "reflects the UAE's long-term strategic and economic vision and evolving energy profile, including accelerated investment in domestic energy production," the country's energy ministry said. - The move "reinforces its…