The state of the global diesel market is getting even more precarious as the Russia-Ukraine war and the Iran crisis squeeze supply from multiple angles. Why it matters: Diesel prices ripple through economies here and abroad, affecting shipping costs, construction and plenty in between. - The average U.S. price is up 44 cents over the last month to $5.32 per gallon, compared to $3.71 a year ago, per AAA. - However, during the Iran crisis, it hasn't hit the all-time high of $5.82 per gallon that AAA recorded in mid-June of 2022. Driving the news: A new S&P Global Energy analysis unpacks the ingredients behind the "big squeeze" in global refined product markets. - S&P estimates that refineries worldwide processed 7.5 million barrels per…
Oil prices have defied predictions of even bigger increases than we've seen — but the markets' shock absorbers could easily wear out later this summer unless the Strait of Hormuz opens soon, analysts warn. Why it matters: If the stockpiles run too low and oil prices surge, prices at the pump — which have been falling lately — could spike again as the midterm elections approach. - And buffers against economically devastating shortages in major importing countries are also at risk. The latest: President Trump said Thursday that a deal with Iran is imminent, but the outlook changed so many times in the course of one day that it could easily change again. - The oil markets seem to think it might happen, though, as oil is trading…
If a U.S.-Iran peace deal actually happens this time — and that's still a big if— consumers have a long road ahead before filling up returns all the way to the good old days of early 2026. Why it matters: Even if the Strait of Hormuz opened right away, pump prices will likely remain higher — maybe a lot higher — than pre-war levels at least through the midterm elections. - U.S. retail prices are tethered to global oil markets that will be in turmoil for a while. - The average U.S. price for regular gasoline was $4.54 per gallon on Wednesday, compared to just under $3 pre-war, per AAA data. What we're watching: Some price relief would come within days of the Strait of Hormuz truly reopening, per Patrick De Haan of the market data…
HOUSTON — Instability is the defining mood at the world's most influential energy gathering this week — playing out in a split screen of oil markets jolted by the Iran war and an AI-supercharged power sector. Why it matters: The vibe at the CERAWeek conference underscores how quickly the energy landscape has turned unpredictable, leaving billions in investment decisions — and what consumers ultimately pay — hanging in the balance. Driving the news: The biggest headlines out of the S&P Global-run event are coming from the parallel geopolitical events of the Iran war and Venezuela. What they're saying: Conference host Daniel Yergin asked ConocoPhillips CEO Ryan Lance on the main stage yesterday how he thought the oil market was…