AXIOS (Holly Otterbein) - Pollsters missed again in Wisconsin. Here's why.
Pollsters appeared to blow another high-stakes Midwest election Tuesday, as center-left Democrat David Crowley stunned socialist Francesca Hong in Wisconsin's primary for governor. - But on Wednesday, the reasons for the miss seemed clear: Surveys a week before the primary captured only a hint of a rapidly changing roller coaster of a race in which Crowley was gaining fast, and Hong was playing defense. Driving the news: Two polls had shown Hong up by about 20 points over Crowley. But Crowley wound up winning by half a percentage point in an upset that interrupted a run of primary wins by left-wing Democrats this spring. - Just a week earlier, polls also had overestimated progressive Abdul El-Sayed's strength in the Michigan Senate…
What theory was proposed regarding crossover voting in the Wisconsin open primary?
Chaz Nuttycombe speculated that because Wisconsin has an open primary, some individuals who typically vote in Republican primaries may have crossed over to vote in the competitive Democratic contest specifically to vote against Hong.
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What role did social media and media coverage play in the final week of Francesca Hong's campaign?
The final week was dominated by the fallout from Hong's struggle to explain a social media post in which she suggested people "cancel Thanksgiving" during a CNN interview. Additionally, Chaz Nuttycombe, founder of State Navigate, noted that Fox was airing wall-to-wall coverage about Hong at the time.
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What specific circumstances characterized the final month of the Wisconsin gubernatorial primary?
The final month was described as particularly chaotic, featuring a dash by the party establishment to stop Assembly member Francesca Hong due to fears she was too far left to win in November. During this time, two candidates dropped out due to scandals, and Milwaukee county executive David Crowley briefly exited his campaign before re-entering to challenge Hong.
Q&A ID 80af557e-027a-4993-8357-9d2413ac0bc8
Why did pollsters miss the outcome of the Wisconsin gubernatorial primary between David Crowley and Francesca Hong?
Several factors contributed to the polling errors: surveys taken a week before the primary failed to capture a rapid shift in momentum where Crowley was gaining fast; polls were taken too early to capture voter movement; it is difficult to model open primaries where voters can participate regardless of registration; and Hong failed to run TV advertisements in the final days to counter attacks, leaving voters with only negative messages about her.
Q&A ID 51467316-f761-49b6-976c-55def20c9c66