AXIOS (Holly Otterbein) - Pollsters missed again in Wisconsin. Here's why.
Pollsters appeared to blow another high-stakes Midwest election Tuesday, as center-left Democrat David Crowley stunned socialist Francesca Hong in Wisconsin's primary for governor. - But on Wednesday, the reasons for the miss seemed clear: Surveys a week before the primary captured only a hint of a rapidly changing roller coaster of a race in which Crowley was gaining fast, and Hong was playing defense. Driving the news: Two polls had shown Hong up by about 20 points over Crowley. But Crowley wound up winning by half a percentage point in an upset that interrupted a run of primary wins by left-wing Democrats this spring. - Just a week earlier, polls also had overestimated progressive Abdul El-Sayed's strength in the Michigan Senate…
AI:Pollsters failed once again to accurately predict the outcome of the Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary, where establishment candidate David Crowley pulled off a late-game upset against socialist Francesca Hong. Despite early surveys projecting a comfortable lead for Hong, Crowley surged from 20% to roughly 40% in the final days as voters reacted to Hong's controversial comments regarding Thanksgiving and concerns over her electability. The inaccuracy is being attributed to polls capturing only outdated snapshots of a volatile race, the inherent difficulty of modeling open primaries where crossover voting occurs, and Hong's failure to utilize television advertising during the critical final stretch to counter negative narratives.…Open