NYTIMES (Patricia Cohen) - A Global Economy Jolted by an Oil Shock Now Gets a Tariff Reminder
Tariffs are back, but this time there is a war in the Persian Gulf and oil has hit $100 a barrel.
Tariffs are back, but this time there is a war in the Persian Gulf and oil has hit $100 a barrel.
State of the Union: The Iran War continues to drive higher energy prices and broader inflation. The post ECB Holds Rates Steady appeared first on The American Conservative .
The European Central Bank (ECB) left interest rates unchanged at its meeting Thursday, citing the effects of the Iran War on energy markets. The bank kept its benchmark deposit rate at 2.25 percent, with its main refinancing and marginal lending rates remaining at 2.40 percent and 2.65 percent, respectively. The ECB assessed that energy prices remain volatile and consistently elevated when compared to pre-war conditions, noting in a statement that “uncertainty remains high and the full inflationary impact of the energy shock has yet to play out.” The bank also said it was “closely monitoring the intensity and duration of the shock, as well as its indirect and second-round effects.” Inflation in the Eurozone dipped slightly in…Open
State of the Union: Iran’s military said it was closing the Strait of Hormuz over Israel’s continued strikes in Lebanon. The post Iran War Day 113: J.D. Vance and Iranians Set to Meet in Switzerland appeared first on The American Conservative .
Vice President J.D. Vance told Fox News on Saturday morning that he expects to travel to Switzerland within days to meet with Iran’s negotiating team, a day after talks were cancelled by Iran over Israel’s ongoing attacks on Lebanon, as the Iran War entered its 113th day. “I expect that I will leave sometime in the next couple of days, but you know it’s always a delicate coordination dance and the diplomatic protocols,” Vance said. Axios reported Friday that U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff and Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi were traveling to Switzerland for negotiations. Iran’s Fars News, citing Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei, reported that Iran’s delegation will insist the U.S. honors the terms…Open
Data: Bureau of Economic Analysis ; Chart: Axios Visuals Americans are burning through their financial cushion at an accelerating pace, spending faster than their income is growing, as the energy shock from the Iran war slams household budgets. Why it matters: Consumer spending has indeed held up, defying rock-bottom sentiment readings. But there's new evidence that suggests households are increasingly drawing down savings to support their spending, a fragile dynamic for the broader economy. What they're saying: "While prices are rising faster than comfortable, incomes are not, putting consumers in an uncomfortable spot," NerdWallet senior economist Elizabeth Renter wrote. - "Rising prices, sluggish income and economic uncertainty could…
Data: Bureau of Economic Analysis ; Chart: Axios Visuals Americans are burning through their financial cushion at an accelerating pace, spending faster than their income is growing, as the energy shock from the Iran war slams household budgets. Why it matters: Consumer spending has indeed held up, defying rock-bottom sentiment readings. But there's new evidence that suggests households are increasingly drawing down savings to support their spending, a fragile dynamic for the broader economy. What they're saying: "While prices are rising faster than comfortable, incomes are not, putting consumers in an uncomfortable spot," NerdWallet senior economist Elizabeth Renter wrote. - "Rising prices, sluggish income and economic uncertainty could…Open
The Warsh era begins with soaring inflation, a Middle East energy shock bleeding into other parts of the economy and colleagues skeptical that rate cuts should come anytime soon. - Add on top: Kevin Warsh faces more political pressure to deliver lower rates than any other Federal Reserve chair in recent memory. Why it matters: The 17th Fed chair, sworn in Friday at the White House, inherits a set of economic conditions that make it difficult to justify cutting rates. - Despite President Trump's unprecedented pressure on Warsh's predecessor, Jerome Powell, to cut rates, the president struck a different tone on Friday. - "Honestly, I really mean this: I want Kevin to be totally independent and just do a great job. Don't look at me, don't…
The Warsh era begins with soaring inflation, a Middle East energy shock bleeding into other parts of the economy and colleagues skeptical that rate cuts should come anytime soon. - Add on top: Kevin Warsh faces more political pressure to deliver lower rates than any other Federal Reserve chair in recent memory. Why it matters: The 17th Fed chair, sworn in Friday at the White House, inherits a set of economic conditions that make it difficult to justify cutting rates. - Despite President Trump's unprecedented pressure on Warsh's predecessor, Jerome Powell, to cut rates, the president struck a different tone on Friday. - "Honestly, I really mean this: I want Kevin to be totally independent and just do a great job. Don't look at me, don't…Open
The global energy shock stemming from the U.S.-Iran conflict in the Middle East is creating economic uncertainty as the Federal Open Market Committee meets to discuss policy.
Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell said the Fed is not yet at the moment when it needs to decide whether to "look through" the Iran war energy shock. What they're saying: "It's something we will eventually, maybe, face the question of what to do here. We're not really facing it yet because we don't know what the economic effects will be," Powell told introductory economics students at Harvard University on Monday morning. - "We feel like our policy is in a good place for us to wait and see how that turns out." Powell said that the Fed has to consider the economic backdrop against which the shock is occurring. "The broader context is ... we've been coming down close to 2% [inflation], post-pandemic, but we've never actually gotten and…
Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell said the Fed is not yet at the moment when it needs to decide whether to "look through" the Iran war energy shock. What they're saying: "It's something we will eventually, maybe, face the question of what to do here. We're not really facing it yet because we don't know what the economic effects will be," Powell told introductory economics students at Harvard University on Monday morning. - "We feel like our policy is in a good place for us to wait and see how that turns out." Powell said that the Fed has to consider the economic backdrop against which the shock is occurring. "The broader context is ... we've been coming down close to 2% [inflation], post-pandemic, but we've never actually gotten and…Open
Data: Axios analysis of Energy Information Administration and Bureau of Labor Statistics data; Note: March 2026 measure assumes most recent weekly gasoline price reading ($3.96) and average hourly earnings rising per recent trend ($37.44).; Chart: Neil Irwin/Axios The U.S. has a key advantage in weathering the Iran war-triggered energy shock that was missing in previous episodes of overseas tumult: an economy that has become substantially less energy-intensive. Why it matters: Higher prices at the gasoline pump, for jet fuel and for diesel will no doubt hurt. But in relative terms, both the average household and the economy as a whole have more capacity to weather the hit than in the past. The big picture: Over recent decades, the share…
Data: Axios analysis of Energy Information Administration and Bureau of Labor Statistics data; Note: March 2026 measure assumes most recent weekly gasoline price reading ($3.96) and average hourly earnings rising per recent trend ($37.44).; Chart: Neil Irwin/Axios The U.S. has a key advantage in weathering the Iran war-triggered energy shock that was missing in previous episodes of overseas tumult: an economy that has become substantially less energy-intensive. Why it matters: Higher prices at the gasoline pump, for jet fuel and for diesel will no doubt hurt. But in relative terms, both the average household and the economy as a whole have more capacity to weather the hit than in the past. The big picture: Over recent decades, the share…Open
The region’s stores of natural gas are running at the lowest level in years, and filling them up is increasingly daunting as the U.S.-led war in Iran pushes up prices.
Iran warns the world should be ready for oil at $200 a barrel as the conflict in the Middle East approaches the two-week mark.