Changes to the methodology underneath the Federal Reserve's go-to inflation measure are on track to make the numbers look a couple of ticks better later this year. Why it matters: The changes are entirely defensible on technical grounds and should make the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index better able to mirror overall price dynamics over time. - But coming at a fraught moment — when the independence of statistical agencies has been attacked and the Fed has overshot its inflation target for half a decade — the optics aren't great. State of play: The Bureau of Economic Analysis, which calculates the PCE inflation measure, announced late last month the methodological changes to how price changes are calculated in three…
State of the Union: The Fed’s preferred inflation measurement has reached its highest year-over-year report in three years. The post PCE Inflation Highest Since May 2023 appeared first on The American Conservative .
The Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Index rose 3.8 percent year-over-year (YOY) in April, the highest since May 2023 and up from 3.5 percent in March. Core PCE, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy, saw it rise by 3.3 percent YOY. The PCE is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation in the broader economy, making this high reading the first signal of rising inflation in the new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s tenure. Investors trading on Treasury bond markets and on Federal Funds Futures currently are pricing in interest-rate hikes from the nation’s central bank of at least 0.30 percent through 2027. The high reports for the PCE follow earlier reports this month of the consumer and producer price…Open
Data: Bureau of Economic Analysis ; Chart: Axios Visuals Americans are burning through their financial cushion at an accelerating pace, spending faster than their income is growing, as the energy shock from the Iran war slams household budgets. Why it matters: Consumer spending has indeed held up, defying rock-bottom sentiment readings. But there's new evidence that suggests households are increasingly drawing down savings to support their spending, a fragile dynamic for the broader economy. What they're saying: "While prices are rising faster than comfortable, incomes are not, putting consumers in an uncomfortable spot," NerdWallet senior economist Elizabeth Renter wrote. - "Rising prices, sluggish income and economic uncertainty could…
The U.S. economy grew more slowly than previously estimated in the final quarter of 2025. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) revised its figure for real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth to an annual rate of 0.5 percent, down from the earlier estimate of 0.7 percent. The post GDP Growth PLUNGED in Q4, Revised Numbers Reveal. appeared first on The National Pulse .
PULSE POINTS WHAT HAPPENED: U.S. GDP grew at an annual rate of 0.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025, short of an expected 0.7 percent. WHO WAS INVOLVED: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) produced the estimate. WHEN & WHERE: Released on April 9, 2026, regarding the fourth quarter of 2025. KEY QUOTE: “Real GDP was revised down 0.2 percentage point from the second estimate, primarily reflecting a downward revision to investment,” said the BEA. IMPACT: The U.S. Dollar Index showed no immediate reaction, remaining near the previous closing level. IN FULL The U.S. economy grew more slowly than previously estimated in the final quarter of 2025. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) revised its figure for real Gross Domestic…Open
State of the Union: Personal savings rate falls, PCE price index rises The post Inflation Rises to 3% appeared first on The American Conservative .
Data released Friday by the Commerce Department showed the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge rose to 3 percent year over year in December, up from 2.8 percent the prior month. The data show that the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 0.4 percent in December and 2.9 percent from a year earlier. Core PCE, which does not include food and energy expenditures, also rose 0.4 percent monthly and 3 percent from last year. The personal savings rate fell to 3.6 percent of disposable income in December, down from 3.7 percent in October and November, continuing a gradual decline from 4.9 percent in May 2025. The data suggest progress toward the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target has stalled. The Fed cut rates three…Open