FOX Business contributor Lou Basenese and Heritage Foundation chief economist EJ Antoni analyze the PCE inflation report showing a 3.7% annual rise and debate how the data could impact the Federal Reserve’s next policy moves on ‘Kudlow.’ #fox #media #breakingnews #us #usa #new #news #breaking #foxbusiness #kudlow #inflation #pce #pceinflation #federalreserve #fed #interestrates #economy #useconomy #monetarypolicy #ratecuts #economicdata #loubasenese #ejantoni #heritagefoundation #consumerprices #markets
Data: Census Bureau ; Chart: Neil Irwin/Axios American consumers have powered the economy forward this year. In July, they took a breather. Why it matters: While the underlying trend in consumer demand appears solid, retail sales hit an air pocket last month, suggesting a bumpier path ahead for overall growth. - Combined with a weak jobs report last week and two subdued inflation readings this week, it points to the Federal Reserve having room to be patient on potential interest rate increases this fall. Driving the news: Retail sales fell 0.6% in July, the weakest performance in more than a year and well below the 0.1% gain analysts expected. - Excluding gas stations and auto dealers, there was still a 0.3% decline in sales, meaning…
Changes to the methodology underneath the Federal Reserve's go-to inflation measure are on track to make the numbers look a couple of ticks better later this year. Why it matters: The changes are entirely defensible on technical grounds and should make the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index better able to mirror overall price dynamics over time. - But coming at a fraught moment — when the independence of statistical agencies has been attacked and the Fed has overshot its inflation target for half a decade — the optics aren't great. State of play: The Bureau of Economic Analysis, which calculates the PCE inflation measure, announced late last month the methodological changes to how price changes are calculated in three…
Income growth is accelerating — supporting consumer spending — while inflation is rising even beyond the energy-price shock. Why it matters: That combination, shown in new data out Thursday morning, creates a complex reality for Kevin Warsh's young Federal Reserve chairmanship . - It's good news for the economy's underlying resilience, but it raises fresh questions about whether interest rates are exerting as much downward pressure on demand as Fed officials may believe. What they're saying: "The U.S. consumer is not cracking," Olu Sonola, an economist at Fitch Ratings, wrote Thursday morning, adding that the oil price shock has not derailed consumer spending. - "Headline inflation may be nearing a peak as energy prices fall, but…
State of the Union: Markets expect an interest rate hike this year. The post Fed’s Preferred Inflation Measure Hits Highest Level Since April 2023 appeared first on The American Conservative .
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, rose 4.1 percent year-over-year (YOY) in May following a monthly increase of 0.4 percent. That annual rate is the highest since April 2023. Core PCE, which excludes volatile items like energy and food, similarly rose 3.4 percent YOY, its highest level since October 2023. Much of the rise comes from increased expenditures on financial services and insurance, following a rally in the S&P 500. April’s PCE report had revealed a similar three-year high. The upward trend puts further pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. Markets now price the chance of a rate hike at the July 29 Fed meeting at 30 percent…Open
Annual inflation hit the highest level in more than three years last month as prices across the economy rose at an even quicker pace, according to data released Thursday by the Commerce Department. Prices rose 4.1 percent over the past year and 0.7 percent in May alone, as measured by the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) [...]
Americans are spending money faster than they can earn it, and it may be keeping the economy afloat but at a cost. The latest Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index shows that inflation is up nearly 4% compared to a year ago. More: https://tinyurl.com/3nrc8ezc #inflation #economy #consumers
State of the Union: The Fed’s preferred inflation measurement has reached its highest year-over-year report in three years. The post PCE Inflation Highest Since May 2023 appeared first on The American Conservative .
The Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Index rose 3.8 percent year-over-year (YOY) in April, the highest since May 2023 and up from 3.5 percent in March. Core PCE, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy, saw it rise by 3.3 percent YOY. The PCE is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation in the broader economy, making this high reading the first signal of rising inflation in the new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s tenure. Investors trading on Treasury bond markets and on Federal Funds Futures currently are pricing in interest-rate hikes from the nation’s central bank of at least 0.30 percent through 2027. The high reports for the PCE follow earlier reports this month of the consumer and producer price…Open
