Federal scientists now say there is a greater than 90 percent chance this El Niño becomes "very strong" by winter, and a 69 percent chance it surpasses every El Niño event on record, a prospect one economist warns could make it the costliest ever. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center released an updated forecast on Aug. 13 […] The post NOAA forecast puts odds of record-shattering El Niño above 90 percent appeared first on American Almanac .
Federal scientists now say there is a greater than 90 percent chance this El Niño becomes "very strong" by winter, and a 69 percent chance it surpasses every El Niño event on record, a prospect one economist warns could make it the costliest ever. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center released an updated forecast on Aug. 13 reporting that sea-surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean have climbed more than 3.6 degrees above average, a reading that multiple climate models from North America and abroad agree points toward a historic event. The agency's report projects the warming will continue to strengthen through the end of 2026, with impacts rippling across weather patterns from the American heartland to Southeast Asia.…Open
AI:NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center has issued a massive updated forecast revealing a greater than 90 percent chance that this winter will feature a "very strong" El Niño, with a staggering 69 percent probability of it becoming the most powerful event ever recorded since 1950. Sea-surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific have already surged more than 3.6 degrees above average, signaling a historic phenomenon that economists warn could be the costliest in history, potentially mirroring or exceeding the multi-trillion dollar losses seen in the 1982 and 1997 cycles. This massive shift is expected to disrupt global weather patterns through late 2026, bringing warmer temperatures to the Pacific Northwest and Great Lakes, while…Open
Federal forecasters are tracking two developing disturbances in the Eastern Pacific that could aim tropical weather at Hawaii within the next ten days, a threat amplified by strengthening El Niño conditions that have already produced a Category 5 hurricane this season. The National Hurricane Center is monitoring both areas for potential tropical development, though it […] The post El Niño fuels new tropical threats in the Eastern Pacific, and Hawaii sits in the forecast crosshairs appeared first on American Almanac .
Federal forecasters are tracking two developing disturbances in the Eastern Pacific that could aim tropical weather at Hawaii within the next ten days, a threat amplified by strengthening El Niño conditions that have already produced a Category 5 hurricane this season. The National Hurricane Center is monitoring both areas for potential tropical development, though it currently assigns low odds of organization over the next seven days. But several computer and artificial-intelligence forecast models, including Google's DeepMind model and the European forecast model, project that tropical activity could reach Hawaii roughly between August 14 and 17, Fox Weather reported . NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has flagged the region southeast…Open
Hurricane Genevieve became the first Category 5 hurricane in waters near North and Central America since 2024, and Super Typhoon Dolphin is threatening to match it, twin Pacific powerhouses fueled by El Niño's warm waters. Genevieve's maximum sustained winds hit 160 mph overnight Sunday into Monday, July 27, making it the strongest hurricane in the […] The post Two monster storms churn across the Pacific as El Niño supercharges the 2026 season appeared first on American Almanac .
Hurricane Genevieve became the first Category 5 hurricane in waters near North and Central America since 2024, and Super Typhoon Dolphin is threatening to match it, twin Pacific powerhouses fueled by El Niño's warm waters. Genevieve's maximum sustained winds hit 160 mph overnight Sunday into Monday, July 27, making it the strongest hurricane in the eastern Pacific this year. The storm formed as a tropical depression well off the coast of Mexico on the morning of July 24, strengthened into Tropical Storm Genevieve just hours later, and reached hurricane status by Saturday. Within another 24 hours it had exploded to Category 4 with 155-mph winds before crossing the Category 5 threshold overnight. AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex…Open