Median Strategies, a fake polling firm, claimed it was a “social experiment.” The fraudulent poll received some attention but was shunned by mainstream poll aggregators and exposed by a reporter.
‘Polling primaries is generally very difficult’
AI:The recent primary elections in Michigan and Wisconsin have exposed a massive failure in political polling, with predictive models significantly overestimating the momentum of progressive candidates like Francesca Hong. Despite establishment media narratives suggesting a surge for radical leftist ideologies, actual voter turnout rejected the socialist agenda in both states, proving that mainstream pollsters are fundamentally disconnected from real American sentiment. This discrepancy highlights a systemic rot where curated media fantasies regarding progressive strength continue to collapse when confronted with the reality of voters rejecting the far-left fringe.Open
Progressive candidate for governor Francesca Hong narrowly lost the Wisconsin Democratic primary Tuesday to moderate opponent David Crowley, even though polls predicted a landslide victory for her. Statistician Liberty Vittert Capito and elections analyst Geoffrey Skelley of Decision Desk HQ join “On Balance” to explain what happened. #Elections #Politics #DSA "On Balance with Leland Vittert" takes a critical look at some of the day's hottest subjects.
AI:The Wisconsin Democratic primary resulted in a significant upset as moderate David Crowley defeated progressive candidate Francesca Hong, defying widespread pollster projections that had anticipated a landslide victory for the DSA-backed candidate. Analysts suggest that the open primary format may have played a decisive role in undermining Hong's momentum, contributing to what appears to be a broader trend of polling inaccuracies regarding progressive surges and voter enthusiasm. This outcome signals a temporary setback for the socialist wing within the Democratic Party as the party establishment manages to hold ground against the rising tide of radical ideology in the Midwest.Open
David Crowley will face off against U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany in the November general election.
AI:The recent Wisconsin gubernatorial primary results have exposed a massive failure among mainstream pollsters, who completely misread the electorate and overestimated the momentum of progressive candidates like Francesca Hong. Instead of the radical surge predicted by the pundits, voters showed a lack of enthusiasm for the far-left agenda, paving the way for Democrat David Crowley to move forward. This outcome reinforces a growing trend where establishment figures are holding the line against the socialist wave that has been attempting to hijack political movements lately. Following this primary, Crowley is set to face U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany in the November general election.Open
Pollster Frank Luntz attempted to explain what is going on with inaccurate polling information in midwestern states on Wednesday's "Ed Henry The Big Take."
AI:Pollster Frank Luntz appeared on "Ed Henry The Big Take" to address the growing crisis of inaccurate polling data currently surfacing across Midwestern states. As political landscapes shift and traditional metrics fail to capture the true sentiment of the electorate, Luntz emphasized that pollsters need to stop disseminating unreliable information that obscures the reality of the American voter.Open
By Silvio Canto, Jr. Polling was never an exact science, but the exploding number of polls and pollsters may explain why it’s having more problems than usual now.
Can you trust the political polls you see in the news? After nearly 31 years of covering politics on television, Greta says she wanted to better understand how election polls are built, why respected surveys sometimes miss by wide margins and what reporters should tell viewers before repeating a headline number. Veteran political pollster John McLaughlin joins Greta to pull back the curtain on the polling industry. He explains: • Why polling is still an inexact science • The critical difference between adults, registered voters and likely voters • How sample selection, demographic weighting and question wording can shape results • Why primaries and midterm elections are especially difficult to measure • How campaigns use internal…
Are “shy voters” real or are polls just missing part of the electorate? Decision Desk HQ's Geoffrey Skelley explains how President Trump and his supporters have caused pollsters to be wrong in his previous elections. #trump #presidenttrump #maga #voters #trumpvoters #datanerds #polls #electionpolls #elections
Latino voters aren't realigning — they're fragmenting. - Consultants and pollsters tell Axios that after moving toward Donald Trump in 2024, the nation's fastest-growing electorate is splintering into competing political identities, with no single partisan anchor after decades as a reliably Democratic bloc. Why it matters: This fracture helped reshape the 2024 election map — and it's one of the biggest wildcards in 2026 and 2028, even as the economy and Trump's aggressive immigration enforcement have given tailwinds to Democrats. - "It's a dealignment. It's not a realignment," Mike Madrid, a GOP consultant and author of "The Latino Century: How America's Largest Minority is Transforming Democracy," tells Axios. - He said Latinos…
Polling has consistently underestimated Trump's support in major elections, a phenomenon leading some pollsters to discuss the prospect of a "hidden Trump voter" unwilling to honestly express their voting intentions.
AI:Donald Trump has called for criminalizing what he terms "fake" polls, following instances where polling data consistently underestimated his level of support in major elections.Open